Hating the bailout? You won't like the next one, either.
News item: The Dow industrials more than 350 points Monday on fears the credit crisis is spreading, and the U.S. economy weakening. CNBC's Jim Cramer, love him or hate him, warned short-term investors to get out of the market today. He defined short term as the next five years.
News item from Bloomberg this morning:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700-billion plan to buy troubled assets from financial firms may not work because it doesn't recapitalize banks, said Edmund Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize for economics.
“There are lots of reasons to think the Paulson plan won't succeed in cleaning up banks' balance sheets any time soon,” Phelps, an economics professor at Columbia University, said at a conference today in Washington. “It may aggravate the second problem banks have, which is that they're quasi-insolvent.”
Speaking at the same conference, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman agreed, saying the Paulson plan fails to recapitalize banks, and that another government intervention, to inject capital into the banking system, is probably inevitable.
Two cents: We're up to at least* four bail-outs now -- Bear Stearns, Fannie-Freddie, AIG, and the Paulson plan. And it appears increasingly likely that a fifth bailout is in our near future. It could be a week from now, it could be a month, it could be the subject of the next president's first prime-time address to the nation in early 2009, but it's coming.
The initial argument for the Paulson plan was that it was "systemic" rather than case-by-case. Sure enough, it is systemic. That doesn't mean it will work, and that doesn't mean there won't be another, fairly soon.
*I say "at least" four bail-outs, because I'm sure some readers will count last summer's big housing bill (Remember that one? Historic and sweeping help for struggling homeowners?) as a bail-out as well.
-- Peter Viles
Your thoughts? Comments? E-mail story tips to Peter Viles.
Photo credit: AFP / Getty Images

Wasn't the $150 Billion "stimulus" plan a bail out of sorts too?
Posted by: E | October 06, 2008 at 10:43 AM
So where were these economists prior to the Bailout plan passing the Congress...the media wouldn't let them near, is that it...
Frankly I don't need a nobel prize winner to tell me what's going on....it's rather obvious. The $700billion should have been pumped into our economy not into Paulson's wallet.
Now Paulson hired another one of his buddies to run the bailout plan. What the hell is going on. I can't believe that our Congress is doing nothing, absolutely nothing.
Posted by: moppy | October 06, 2008 at 11:05 AM
July, 2008. “I was the first guy that said torch your house for the insurance money. I am now telling you that between now and the next six months you have to buy a house.” --J. Cramer.
Spend 15 minutes with Google or youtube -- there are a huge number of articles and video clips documenting how often this guy contradicts himself. How he still has a following is beyond me.
Posted by: Giacomo | October 06, 2008 at 11:21 AM
Geez, the goverenment shoved this plan down our throats saying we need bailout this NOW. There are lots of alternative plans that were not even considered.
Why were they in such a rush? Reality is that the bailout law will take months to work, if it works at all. More money will be asked for since this idiotic bailout did not address the immediate problem that so many cried about, lack of credit.
I really hope I'm wrong, because if I'm right, we are truely screwed.
Paulson/Bush/Bernanke/Congress, thanks for the debt and the crappy assets.
Posted by: normanpheeny | October 06, 2008 at 11:32 AM
We need to change the name to 'FAILOUTS'
Posted by: BottomFisher | October 06, 2008 at 12:12 PM
nobody gave a rat's ass about actually RELIEVING THE CREDIT FREEZE or they would have made it mandatory to make 100% of the bailout money AVAILABLE IMMEDIATELY to qualified borrowers (individuals and businesses). instead, how they use it will be entirely discretionary.
this was phase 2 (3? 254?) of the Crony Capitalism plan to deregulate, refuse to enforce existing regulations, stop states from regulating, and perpetuate their pyramid scheme long beyond its natural life. a perfect storm of Big Money meeting Big Power and exploiting the puny, sad, shallow greed of ignorant Americans to do it. none of it would have been "too big to fail" if regulators had been in place, but they couldn't get to this bailout without that, so it was critical to keep everyone blindly running headlong off the cliff.
a few million americans thought they were in the middle of the pyramid, winning just enough to keep them in the game (cheap loans, prosperity on paper, falsely "booming" economy all built on credit, etc.). now that the pyramid is inevitably collapsing, its turning out that most of them are not in the middle, but at the bottom, along with the vast majority of Americans who have just been minding their own business, putting money in banks and retirement accounts, and paying their bills and taxes.
when good people get totally screwed to benefit the elite few, guillotines follow. mr. goldman sachs goes to Washington is first up...
Posted by: sheila | October 06, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Where were these economists? Online mostly since they got little or no time from the media over the past three weeks. At least the headlines say "credit crunch" now rather than "bailout plan" as they did last week. Credit crunch is at least in the ballpark of what needs fixing. Also, there is an International Monetary Fund report out on 42 financial crises from around the world that look at what happened, the solutions, and the results. Reading that report would have told most journalists and Congress that the Paulson plan pushed one of the least effective and more costly possible solutions.
I'm not against bailouts, per se. The problem is that the Bush bailout was a non-starter for most serious economists and should have been for Congress and the media. Indeed, both Obama and McCain had (maybe still have) a golden opportunity to get out ahead on this issue by pushing a more responsible solution than the $700 billion we just wasted..
The problem is that the solution is more AIG like bailouts, different degrees of nationalization of banks to recapitalize them before selling them back to the market after the crises is over (or shutting them down if they fail). I don't see Republicans as able to get past their reflexive hatred of "socialism" even if it is the fastest and most direct way to solve the problem. And Obama sounds like he's trying to just ride the wave, not actually lead on this issue.
Posted by: Tim | October 06, 2008 at 01:04 PM
Tim, McCain failed to speak out about the added pork in the rescue bill.
Obama, well, he's not different from the Bush Admin. See, he would have been different had he 1) said we needed more than $700 billion and refused to vote for it unless it was like $5 trillion (seems like the market's opinion today), or 2) said we didn't need the bailout (the will of the people).
But no, instead, he agreed to the bailout and also agreed that the Bush administration's $700 billion (or was it $800 billion) was the correct amount.
So, on this most important question, he was the same as Bush.
He's clearly a Bush collaborator.
I didn't hear any polemics against Big Money. I didn't hear any 'Thou shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of credit-default-swap' speech.
Where was the change we were promised?
Posted by: MyLessThanPrimeBeef | October 06, 2008 at 01:36 PM
You mean that $810 billion package passed last week wasn't a silver bullet?
Posted by: The Original RZ | October 06, 2008 at 01:59 PM
Peter-
The car companies are asking for some low interest loans. If we want to be SUPER technical that is not a bail-out, but it is govt. assistance because they are getting money the private sector will not give them at almost any rate.
Also, how about the State of CA asking for dough? Rumor is that other states will ask as well.
I am planning to send my Congressman and Sec. Poulson my own (personal) bail-out proposal. The big advantage is that it will be VERY cheap - less than $5,000,000. The way money is flying around these days that's like the crumbs on the floor of a bakery.
Posted by: William E. Jones | October 06, 2008 at 03:28 PM
Giacomo, I'm watching youtube, but it's not watching Cramer, its watching some old Earth, Wind & Fire clips from my past.
I watched the Dow on CNBC lose 369.88 today, then changed it to CNN & saw MaCain say nothing and I got depressed, I thought to myself no matter what is said on this blog by us or any of the American people, the burning of the new Rome will proceed, I made a decision to stop stressing about things I can't control. I told myself F... it, I'm selling everything and getting DVD's of the Munsters, Addams Family, My Three Sons, Jackie Gleason Show,Brady Bunch and drive an old 1967 Chevy Impala and listen to E,W&F and old Beatles with my son for the rest of my days,revert back to my childhood when things were much simpler, OH...and after the Dodgers win the World Series, off goes cable..
I can't be the only person who feels this way!!!
Posted by: Nelcisco | October 06, 2008 at 03:53 PM
Why not support an "All Out" - a nonpartisan movement to unseat every single House incumbent that voted for this doomed bailout?
Are there any other ways for the vast majority of US citizens that objected to the bailout to express their utter contempt for the Congress that repeatedly betrays them.
"All Out" is non-partisan - all incumbents voting yes in the House get the boot. R and D alike.
The Senate is left unaffected - its staggered re-election scheme foils a non-partisan approach.
Posted by: cas127 | October 06, 2008 at 04:36 PM
Short of outright giving people money to buy houses at inflated prices, nothing the government can do will stop the housing decline. Water finds its own level, and so too shall house prices.
Posted by: jbunniii | October 06, 2008 at 08:03 PM
Looking forward to the recession.
During the past several years I’ve been tempted to expand my house and buy expensive toys. Unfortunately prices in the overheated economy just seemed out of line with the underlying value of products and services so I didn’t consume.
Recent quotes for a house expansion are coming in at half of their previous levels. Prices on large expensive toys have been dropping like a rock. Can’t resist the temptation much longer. Getting ready splurge and convert some cash into a home expansion, massive new landscaping, a new boat, and a new truck. Low prices are the good news in every recession.
Galt
Posted by: Galt | October 06, 2008 at 08:09 PM
We can borrow our way out of any problem.
My solution, only collect enough income taxes to service the interest on the debt. There is about $10 Trillion in outstanding debt and we are paying around 4%. This comes out to around $400 Billion in taxes. We will need to borrow around $2.5 Trillion per year to make up the shortfall in the budget but at the same time we'll have an extra $2.5 Trillion injected into our economy. The interest on this $2.5 Trillion of new debt only adds another $100 Billion in interest payments for the following year, for a total of $500 billion. Just repeat this process every year.
See how easy it is! Voodoo economics. The sheeple will eat it up.
Posted by: Mark | October 06, 2008 at 08:41 PM
Agree with voting out the incumbents to send a message. I am a democrat who will be voting for the republican against Adam Schiff (my district) just to send a message about the bailout.
I don't really know or care what the republican believes as he'll probably just be another nobody anyway.
Posted by: somedude | October 06, 2008 at 08:56 PM
Reality is that the corporate bankers of the world "own" our butts and have for a very long time. There are some good Dems/Reps out there, but overall our Congress is controlled by an outside elite financial influence that does not represent you or I, and never will unless something is done.
This is not going to stop, it will continue until the middle class is gone or a revolt happens. Anyone who voted for the bailout should be arrested for treason or at the very least given their pink slip.
The Rothschilds of the world need a huge slap down, I just wish I knew the best way it could be done.
Posted by: George | October 07, 2008 at 09:30 AM
Nelcisco -
I agree with you completely. And I feel your pain.
I am proud that most of our (Louisiana's) Congress people voted no to the Bail Out.
I met former Presidential candidate Ron Paul in person. If by some miracle of God. Those who voted for the Bail Out were to be removed after the election. And people like Congressman Ron Paul were to finally gain control of the Congress. And the media would take a break from trying to run the country and go back to reporting the truth. With Rep and Dem politicians working together for the people instead of themselves we may just survive.
These are the things that Ron Paul would do.
a) the immeditate removal of Paulson and The Federal Reserve. No more Goverment regulation of free markets.And no more bailing out ANYONE. From Wallstreet to Mainstreet. Sorry. But if you are over your head from bad decisions, too bad,those who were more responsible shouldn't have to pay for your mistakes.
b) the immediate end of the Iraq War. (we can't afford it. 10 Billion a week!
c) no more printing of money and a return to the gold standard. ( every dollar bill will go back to having a dollar's worth of gold backing it up) This is what the Constituion demands. And this would greatly increase the value of the dollar and would bring the price of everything down. Including oil.
d) the immediate removal of numerous Goverment Departments that are losing money and giving no results.
e) the immediate discontinuing of giving billions of dollars of financial aid to : Israel,Lebanon,Pakistan,Sudan,South and North Korea. As well as the removal of costly military bases in ares that we don't need them. (i.,e. South Korea)
f) the immediate removal of the personal Federal Tax (sounds crazy, but instead of a "free check" from US, keep all of your money and no more checks)
Understand this, the money is there. We are not broke just mis-managed. Take Ron Paul's advice and stop all of the spending IMMEDIATELY. Keep the money in people and business's pockets. Keep the money within our shores. Stop trying to conquer the World and shutdown the Federal Reserve.
And last, pray.
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Posted by: Laisseraller | October 07, 2008 at 04:21 PM
For Those Retirees and Workers, Both Union And Non Union, Who Have Seen Their Retirement Accounts Lose Huge Amounts Of Their Value, Here Is A Somber Thought:
One Of The Crooks Responsible For The Fannie Mae Mess Has Been Rumored To Be Our Next Attorney General.
If That Happens It Would Effectively Guarantee That NONE of the Crooks Responsible For This Mess Would Go To Jail. Your Retirement Has Effectively Been Stolen From You! And As Usual, The Real Guilty Will Go Free. Copy And Past This Link In Order To See How That Plays Out.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?pageId=67068
Henry Waxman Has Already Started An Effective Smoke Screen To Protect The Guilty. The Coordinated Effort To Cover Up Has Already Started, And The American Public Is Too Dumb To Recognize It.
Posted by: GeraldD | October 08, 2008 at 09:28 AM
Please read related article titled: "It's Not Always The Pork. The Cows All Have To Be Fed Too." at http://www.cliffyworld.com/blogs
Posted by: cliffyworld | October 08, 2008 at 06:12 PM