Summit Entertainment had the kind of opening studio executives dream about this weekend, but it's hard to find anyone in the movie business who's not smiling.

Although Summit's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" opened to a massive $140.7 million in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates, it wasn't the only film to perform well. "The Blind Side," which Warner Bros. distributed for financier Alcon Entertainment, opened to $34.5 million, very strong for a modestly budgeted drama. Festival and critics' favorite "Precious" more than tripled its theater count and kept up its winning ways, grossing $11 million at 629 locations.

With one huge hit, numerous strong performers and no real flops, total box-office receipts expanded to nearly $260 million, according to several studio executives and Hollywood.com. That's the second-biggest nonholiday weekend ever, behind only the one in July 2008 when "The Dark Knight" launched and movie theaters collected just over $260 million.

"It's a really good sign for the industry," said Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution for Warner Bros. "It just goes to show you that good movies can expand the marketplace."

Several movies are well positioned to keep playing strongly throughout the holidays, most notably "The Blind Side," which garnered an average grade of A-plus from moviegoers, according to market research firm CinemaScore. It's only the second film this year to get a perfect grade, along with "Up." It could easily collect more than $150 million by the end of the year, making it very profitable for Alcon and Warner Bros., which receives a distribution fee.

"New Moon" is sure to drop significantly after its massive debut. The first "Twilight" fell 62% from its opening on Thanksgiving weekend and the sequel will probably do the same. Nonetheless, if it follows the path of its predecessor, "New Moon" will end up grossing more than $300 million domestically and the same amount overseas, making it one of the most profitable pictures of the year. Summit spent only $50 million to produce its second teen vampire flick based on the bestselling novels.

Overseas, "2012" continues to perform extremely well. It grossed $100.5 million overseas, down 37% from its international debut last weekend. That was helped by a huge $7-million launch in Japan, the biggest for any nonlocal movie this year. Domestically, "2012" dropped 59%. The worldwide total gross for Sony's disaster flick from director Roland Emmerich, which cost $200 million to produce, is a very strong $449.8 million.

Two films performed extremely well in limited release in the U.S. and Canada. Sony Pictures Classics opened the Pedro Almodovar picture "Broken Embraces," starring Penelope Cruz, to $107,597 at just two theaters. On its second weekend, Fox's stop-motion animated picture "Fantastic Mr. Fox" collected $199,200 from four theaters, down just 25%. It starts playing nationwide Wednesday.

First Look Pictures opened the new Nicolas Cage crime drama "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans," directed by Werner Herzog, to a so-so $257,267 at 27 locations.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

1. "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" (Summit): Opened to $140.7 million domestically and $118.1 million overseas.

2. "The Blind Side" (Warner Bros./Alcon): Debuted to a very healthy $34.5 million.

3. "2012" (Sony): Fell 59% on its second weekend to $26.5 million. Overseas it grossed $100.5 million, down 37%. Total domestic ticket sales are $108.2 million. Total foreign ticket sales are $341.1 million.

4. "Planet 51" (Sony/Ilion): The animated family film opened to a decent $12.6 million.

5. "A Christmas Carol" (Disney): Fell 45% on its third weekend, a much bigger drop than its second weekend, to $12.2 million. Domestic total: $79.8 million.

6. "Precious" (Lionsgate): $11 million on its third weekend as it expanded to 629 theaters. Domestic total: $21.4 million.

7. "The Men Who Stare at Goats" (Overture/BBC/Winchester Capital): $2.8 million, down 53% on its third weekend. $27.6 million domestic total so far.

8. "Couples Retreat" (Universal/Relativity): Fell 53% on its seventh weekend to $2 million. Domestic total is now $105 million. Foreign total: $37.7 million.

9. "The Fourth Kind" (Universal/Gold Circle): Down 62% on its third weekend to $1.7 million. $23.3 million domestic total.

10. "Law Abiding Citizen" (Overture/Film Department): Declined 57% to $1.6 million on its sixth weekend, bringing its U.S. and Canadian total to $70 million.

-- Ben Fritz

Top photo: Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart and Taylor Lautner in "The Twilight Saga: New Moon." Credit: Kimberley French / Summit Entertainment.

Bottom photo: Penelope Cruz and Lluis Homar in "Broken Embraces." Credit: Emilio Pereda / Paola Ardizzoni / Sony Pictures Classics.

Summit Entertainment's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold an astounding $140.7 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to studio estimates, blowing away already huge expectations and giving the teen vampire saga the third-biggest domestic debut of all time.

In the 25 foreign countries where "New Moon" launched, it added an extra $118.1 million, giving it a mind-bending worldwide total of $258.8 million. That's the seventh-biggest worldwide launch of all time and is particularly notable given that several international markets where the first "Twilight" performed very well, including Germany, South Korea and Russia, haven't gotten the film yet. [Updated 9:21 a.m.: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that the worldwide ticket sales total was $248.8 million.]

The domestic debut is the biggest, by a margin of $38 million, for a film opening outside of the summer movie season, between May and July, when the biggest tentpoles traditionally launch. The No. 1 opener of all time is "The Dark Knight," which opened to $158.4 million in July 2008, followed by "Spider-Man 3," which started with $151.1 million in May of 2007.

Ticket sales plummeted 41% on Saturday from Friday, the biggest such decline for any picture this year, reflecting the massive pent-up interest among devoted young female fans of the franchise who gave it the most lucrative midnight shows and opening day of all time.

Despite the movie's record-breaking first day, however, the Saturday decline was virtually identical with the first "Twilight," demonstrating that demand to see the movie hasn't shifted up in the schedule, but grown significantly. It appears that more adult women turned out for the sequel, along with the teenage and tween girls who fueled the original.

Assuming it continues to follow the path of the first "Twilight," "New Moon" will likely end up grossing well over $500 million worldwide, representing a windfall for its independent distributor Summit Entertainment. The movie cost just under $50 million to produce, including Canadian tax credits.

The first "Twilight" collected $385 million worldwide.

Despite the dominance of "New Moon," it was a big weekend overall at the box office. Alcon Entertainment's inspirational drama "The Blind Side," starring Sandra Bullock, opened to a much-bigger-than-expected $34.5 million, a very strong launch for a modestly budgeted drama.

"Planet 51," which Sony Pictures distributed for financier and animation studio Ilion Studios, debuted to a so-so $12.3 million.

Lionsgate's well-reviewed festival film"Precious" continues to play very strongly as it expanded to 629 theaters and grossed a healthy $11 million, bringing its total thus far to $21.4 million. The independent studio bought the hard-hitting drama at the Sundance Film Festival for a minimum guarantee of $5.5 million.

Sony's "2012" fell a sizable 59% from its huge opening, taking in $26.5 million in third place this weekend. Disney's "A Christmas Carol" lost a bit of its mojo, dropping 45%, significantly more than the 26% it declined on its second weekend.

--Ben Fritz

The Philadelphia-based cable operator, which had hoped to have a deal announced this week to acquire a 51% stake in the entertainment giant, is being held up as NBC Universal owners spar over the value of the company, according to people close to the negotiations.

General Electric Co., which owns 80% of the television and movie company, and French telecommunications firm Vivendi, which owns 20%, have been negotiating for several weeks over the value of the minority stake. GE needs to reach an agreement with Vivendi before it can sell majority control to Comcast.

But Vivendi and GE are still at least $500 million apart in agreeing on a value for the French company’s stake, according to two people with knowledge of the talks who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are meant to be private. A third person estimated that the two parties could be as far as $900 million apart.

GE has placed a value on NBC Universal of $27 billion to $30 billion, said people familiar with the negotiations. At the lower end, that would mean the value of Vivendi’s stake was about $5.4 billion.

However, Vivendi determined earlier this year that its 20% stake was worth substantially more -- $6.2 billion, according to the company’s filings.

At an investor conference Thursday in Barcelona, Philippe Capron, Vivendi’s chief financial officer, said GE’s negotiations with Comcast complicated the picture.

"This year the situation is a bit more complex," Capron said, according to Bloomberg News. "We are not forced to do anything. We could just also say no.”

Analysts think such an outcome is unlikely. But negotiations could drag on until Dec. 10, when Vivendi's window to exercise its option to sell its stake officially closes. After that time, Vivendi wouldn’t have the oportunity to sell, perhaps even through an public offering, for another year.

Vivendi declined to comment, and a GE spokeswoman was unavailable Friday.

Analysts and some NBC Universal insiders believe that a deal is within reach but that both GE and Vivendi are seeking to maximize their leverage, delaying the completion of the Comcast deal. GE plans to sell much of its stake to Comcast, which would control 51% of the new entity. GE would have the remaining 49%.

GE’s partnership with Vivendi dates back to 2004, when the industrial giant acquired Vivendi’s profitable entertainment assets -- which included Universal Studios, Universal Pictures and cable channels USA Network and SyFy -- in an effort to strengthen NBC’s portfolio and diversify its revenue. At the time, Vivendi received $3.4 billion in cash and the 20% stake in NBC Universal.

The assets that Vivendi contributed to the venture have turned out to be the most profitable -- particularly the cable channels USA and Syfy. And that fact is not lost on Vivendi.

-- Meg James

According to four people who have closely watched ticket sales data today but requested anonymity because they are not authorized to release the information, the teen vampire phenomenon is all but certain to gross more than $67.2 million, the record set by "The Dark Knight" last year for the biggest single-day take at the box office.

By 5 p.m., the movie had already sold more than $50 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada. When evening shows are included, the total will likely be more than $70 million, the people said.

Given the huge amount of pent-up interest among fans, who are rushing out to theaters on opening day, ticket sales are expected to drop significantly on Saturday and Sunday. Nonetheless, a total weekend gross of more than $110 million is all but certain and more than $120 million is very possible. That would give "New Moon" the biggest weekend gross for any movie this year and make it one of the top five pictures of all time at the domestic box office, not accounting for ticket price inflation.

Ticket sales from the 25 foreign countries where "New Moon" is opening this weekend will almost certainly push the worldwide weekend gross to more than $150 million.

Summit Entertainment, the studio behind the "Twilight" films, will release an official total for Friday ticket sales on Saturday morning.

Update (Nov. 21, 8:50 AM): Summit reports that "New Moon" grossed $72.7 million on Friday, easily breaking the single day sales record set by "The Dark Knight." It will now likely collect more than $120 million through Sunday.

Inspirational drama "The Blind Side," starring Sandra Bullock, sold $10.9 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada on Friday, setting it up to be no. 2 for the weekend with an impressive $30 million-plus.

-- Ben Fritz

Related:

Fans scream with delight for "Twilight: New Moon"

"New Moon" review

Photo: Moviegoers wait to see "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" at the AMC movie theater at the Westfield Century City shopping mall in Los Angeles Thursday night. Credit: Matt Sayles / Associated Press.

Fair, who heads SAG's legislative affairs and communications divisions, will step down by the end of the year, a person close to SAG said.

SAG officials declined to comment on the reason for Fair's resignation.  Fair was among the guild's highest paid staffers and saw her responsibilities grow during the controversial tenure of Doug Allen, the union's former executive director, who was fired by the SAG board earlier this year over his handling of a protracted contract standoff with the studios.

Fair declined to comment.

Update (1 p.m.): In a statement, the Screen Actors Guild Executive Director David White credited Fair for her efforts to redefine the guild's new media initiatives, organizing efforts and legislative advocacy on key guild issues. "Her contributions to the guild have been varied and significant and I thank her for her dedicated service. I know I speak for all of us in wishing her continued success," White stated.

--Richard Verrier

Over the last year or so, the NBC Universal President and CEO has faced harsher criticism than usual. A press favorite when he was the wunderkind producer of NBC's "Today," those days are long gone and now he is pretty much a punching bag. Earlier this month, New York magazine called him a "reviled wonder boy" and said the "beleaguered and tattered Peacock Network deserves better." For every story that says Comcast is planning on leaving Zucker in charge if it takes control of NBC Universal, there are snickers from industry insiders and snarky comments on Twitter and blogs elsewhere on the Internet questioning Zucker's management skills.

While much of NBC Universal is doing well -- particularly news and cable -- Zucker is ripped for NBC's prime time woes. There is certainly plenty of material there for his critics. The network has been struggling for several years. Its decision to put Jay Leno on at 10 p.m. was seen as a sign that it is throwing in the towel on making high-quality dramas like "Law & Order" and "ER" that used to be a staple on the network. While NBC insiders swear that the Leno show is doing better financially than what the network was doing with dramas, the ratings are way down and NBC affiliates are hurting big time from the weaker programming.

A look at the numbers under Zucker don't do him any favors. He first took over NBC Entertainment in December 2001 and he rocketed through the executive ranks even though the network's prime-time performance had been lackluster. In Zucker's first year, NBC averaged 13.5 million viewers in prime time; now it averages under 8 million. Among the coveted adults 18-49 category, NBC went from averaging well over 5 million viewers to about three million. While broadcast television in general has faced erosion over that same time period, NBC's declines have been far steeper than its rivals'.

Zucker often likes to note that most of NBC's revenue comes from its cable networks including USA, Bravo, MSNBC and CNBC, among others, and that NBC itself represents a very small part of the company's bottom line. To be sure, Zucker has oversight over cable too, and those networks -- particularly Bravo and USA -- are flourishing. Of course, NBC acquired both of those channels and the executives who run them didn't come up through Zucker's farm system.

But nonetheless, he signs off on the decisions and has made smart moves by bringing in Jeff Gaspin to oversee the cable programming operation, putting new heads in at MSNBC and CNBC and giving the green light on moving Bonnie Hammer from SyFy to USA and handing Bravo to Lauren Zalaznick. Telemundo has also made gains on his watch as well.

NBC News also continues to flourish. "Today" kicks off hundreds of millions in profit and NBC's evening newscast with Brian Williams is holding up much better than its competition against cable news. The decision to bring Jim Bell to take over as executive producer of "Today" has paid off.

NBC brass complains that Zucker doesn't get the proper credit for those achievements. True, but planes landing safely isn't news -- and Zucker did win recognition for his excellent job running the "Today" show.

As of late, Zucker does seem more open to acknowledging the network's prime time troubles. Speaking Thursday at a Paley Center for Media conference (disclaimer: I used to work on these conferences at the Paley when I was director of programming there), Zucker said when it comes to quality programming, "we haven't done a very good job of it in the last four years at NBC."

Zucker started in news and interestingly it is the traits that made him a good news producer that may have hurt him as an entertainment executive. He is the master of the quick fix. Can't program the 8:30 hour? Just extend "Friends" and "Will & Grace" by 10 minutes. Can't program daytime? Add an hour to "Today." You get the idea.

For better or worse, Zucker is most associated with NBC's prime time problems because he came up on the broadcast side and that is where he still spends a lot of time. The media that most writes about television is also particularly obsessed with prime time. The cable networks are strong and he has recognized and promoted good talent there and let them do their jobs. The same can be said for his management of news. But until he figures out how to fix prime time or find the people who can, he's going to continue to have a few bad days. He's a big boy. He'll handle it.

-- Joe Flint

Photo: Jeff Zucker at the World Economic Forum in 2008. Credit: Pierre Verdy/AFP

According to four people close to the movie, "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold more than $22.2 million worth of tickets in midnight shows last night, beating a record set this summer by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince."

Two people close to the picture said the exact gross, which is still being calculated by Summit Entertainment, could be as high as $26 million.

In addition, one person with access to ticket sales data said the original "Twilight," which was re-released in theaters last night, collected $1.2 million from rabid fans who turned out.

Morning ticket sales for "New Moon" are also huge, according to the person, already totaling $13.9 million. That's a clear sign the  sequel is on track for a massive Friday at the box office.

Summit is expected to release  official estimates soon.

Update (10:45 AM): Summit's official estimate for midnight ticket sales is $26.27 million. Its official estimate for the gross of the original "Twilight" last night is $1.3 million.

Update (7 PM): "New Moon" is poised to have the biggest day ever at the domestic box office. Details here.

-- Ben Fritz and Claudia Eller

Photo: Tickets for the midnight showing of "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" sold out at a movie theater in Nampa, Idaho. Credit: Mike Vogt / Associated Press

Oprah makes up her mind. Oprah Winfrey gave official notice that she is leaving her talk show when her deal is up in 2011 and will focus her efforts on the Oprah Winfrey Network, the cable channel she is launching in partnership with Discovery. The move, while not unexpected, is still a big blow to broadcast television. She has ruled daytime TV for almost a quarter of a century and reinvigorated the talk genre. She was able to both mingle with world leaders, authors and Hollywood talent and do tawdry shows that might seem better suited for Jerry Springer without soiling her own reputation. Analysis on the winners and losers and the big picture from the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Variety, Broadcasting & Cable,  Hollywood Reporter and Deadline Hollywood, which first broke the news two weeks ago that Winfrey was making the leap.

Waiting for Vivendi. The big hurdle for a Comcast-NBC Universal deal remains Vivendi. The Financial Times reports that NBC U parent General Electric Co. and Vivendi are "at least" $1 billion apart on what the French conglomerate's 20% chunk of NBC U is worth. It now looks like there may not be a deal until after Thanksgiving, which is good news for the reporters covering it since we can enjoy our turkey in peace.

"New Moon" will be full. "The Twilight Saga: New Moon," will have a big bite at the box office and could take in $90 million. That's a lot of teenage girls. The Los Angeles Times looks at how much blood the vampire flick will sock away this weekend.

AOL 3.0. Or is it a 4.0? Whatever it is, it sure will be smaller. America Online, which is breaking away from its parent Time Warner in a few weeks, is looking to cut 2,500 jobs and about $300 million in costs. The cuts represent a third of the staff there. Details from the Wall Street Journal.

How's that print thing working out for ya? Both Business Week, which is now owned by Bloomberg, and the Associated Press made drastic staff cuts yesterday. Reuters has the grim details.

Jonas Bros. going `Mad Men.' Teenyboppers the Jonas Bros. are becoming pitchmen for Microsoft's  Xbox.360. New York Times reporter Stuart Elliott interviewed Nick and Kevin Jonas (bet that made your day, right Stuart?), who told him they take their Xbox on the road with them all the time.

Inside the Los Angeles Times: The winners and losers out of Oprah's decision. Since "New Moon" is probably review proof, here's Betsy Sharkey on the Sandra Bullock tearjerker "The Blind Side." 

-- Joe Flint

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The big winners are Discovery Communications, which is partners with Winfrey on the Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN) that is due to launch in early 2011, Ellen DeGeneres and Warner Bros., which syndicates her daytime talk show and all the TV stations that will no longer have to compete against Winfrey in daytime.

The losers include CBS, which will no longer be able to count on the hundreds of millions that "The Oprah Winfrey Show" delivered in license fees and advertising revenue over the years. ABC is also probably not too happy. Many of its big city stations carried the show and it delivered a sizeable audience to their local news. Sony is also grumbling; it was trying desperately to woo distribution rights to Winfrey's daytime show away from CBS when her deal expired. Winfrey herself may be a loser because odds are that, at least in the short-term, she will take a financial hit by abandoning daytime talk -- although, of course, in the long-term she is building an asset that could have tremendous value.

While Winfrey and OWN are keeping quiet, the talk show queen is expected to have a visible presence on the channel when it launches. She probably will do a daily show, although it will not be a carbon copy of her current effort. This will help OWN build a brand and boost its distribution for the network.

Winfrey's departure will be the end of an era for daytime talk. She burst onto the national scene in 1986 after toiling in local TV in Nashville, Baltimore and Chicago, which is where she has made her home for almost 30 years. The late Roger King, a legendary salesman known as much for his hard-living as for his deal-making acumen, signed her to King World and made her a star, and she made him and his brother Michael incredibly rich. CBS later bought King World for $2.5 billion.

When Winfrey premiered, daytime talk was still ruled by Phil Donahue, who dealt with politics and social issues in a more refrained manner. Winfrey was boisterous and enthusiastic and endeared herself to her audience and guests. She was able to woo political leaders and movie stars to her couch and at the same time dip into the more tawdry topics that have also become a staple of TV without soiling her own reputation.

The exit of Winfrey from broadcast TV to cable is yet another sign of the paradigm shift between the two mediums. News Corp., Disney and Viacom all are powered by their cable networks, as is Time Warner. Comcast wants control of NBC Universal not for its broadcast network and TV stations, but for its cable networks. Winfrey is making the decision that she can make more money and build her brand better on cable than broadcast. A few years ago that would have seemed unthinkable, but it is clear that the greater value lies in the broadband medium. OWN, which will debut in 2011 in roughly 70 million homes, will be turbo-charged by having her on board as a regular presence.

At the same time, her own visibility will decline, at least for awhile. While actors bounce back and forth between broadcast and cable, personalities of Winfrey's stature generally stay put. Ted Koppel left ABC's "Nightline" for Discovery Channel but his presence in the cultural zeitgeist diminished and he no longer is associated with the network. Howard Stern gave up his perch on FM radio for satellite radio and though his pay day grew tremendously, he is no longer part of the daily conversation around the water cooler. Winfrey probably will have a similar adjustment. Cable is great at building some stars such as Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, but those who move there from broadcast face smaller audiences and diminished limelight. 

Of course, after a quarter of a century of being in the spotlight, maybe Winfrey won't mind some quiet time.

-- Joe Flint

Photo: Oprah Winfrey. Credit: Chris Pizzello/Associated Press

The talk show diva who has ruled daytime TV for almost a quarter of a century is pulling the plug when her current deal expires in the fall of 2011. She will likely resurface on OWN, the cable network she is starting with Discovery Communications.

The move was not entirely unexpected. Once Winfrey agreed to partner with Discovery on the Oprah Winfrey Network, there was a general assumption that she would ultimately focus all her creative efforts there. OWN, which was originally supposed to launch this year, is now looking to debut in January 2011.

Winfrey will have an on-air presence on OWN as well as behind the scenes. While OWN is keeping mum, Winfrey is expected to have a daily show, although the approach will probably be different than her current studio audience-and-guest format. OWN declined to comment.

Winfrey made her national debut in 1986 when Phil Donahue was still ruling talk. It didn't take her long to drive him off the airwaves. Over the course of her show's run it has veered from classy and educational to tabloid and sleazy. She spawned a host of imitators and clones ranging from Jerry Springer to Ellen DeGeneres. Daytime television was a sleepy business that Winfrey revolutionized. Her syndicated show generated hundreds of millions of dollars a year in revenue.

-- Joe Flint

Photo: Oprah Winfrey at the Vanity Fair party following the 2007 Academy Awards. Credit: Rich Schmitt/AFP/Getty Images.

Confronting a fiscal crisis, Hawaii is laying off its film commissioner and two of her key staffers in the Hawaii Film Office in a bid to save the state money.

Two of the staffers got their pink slips today while state Film Commissioner Donne Dawson's last day on the job is Dec. 4. Only one of the four staff members will remain to handle permitting, representatives of the film office said.

Dawson, film commissioner since 2001, took the news in stride. "We've been engaged in an unprecedented fiscal crisis," she said. "Yes, it's extremely unfortunate. I do believe it poses a tremendous challenge to the industry going forward."

Several other cash-strapped states around the country have cut or gutted their film tax credit programs in the face of severe budget constraints and, in a few cases, outright scandals. Iowa suspend the state's tax credit program and launched a criminal probe into the activities of its former film chief after an audit raised questions about the office's handling of tax credits. No similar allegations have been raised in Hawaii.

Dawson's boss, Georja Skinner, lamented the decision, saying Dawson and her staff had done an "excellent job" building the film industry in Hawaii, but said the state's fiscal condition "necessitated a reduction in our workforce."

Skinner disputed reports that the film office was closing, saying she and her staff would step in to help run the office. A former freelance TV producer and Maui film commissioner, Skinner heads the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism's creative industries division. The division oversees the film office and a state-owned film studio, and manages the state 15% to 20% tax credit, which remains in effect.

Best known for TV shows "Hawaii Five-O," "Magnum P.I." and, more recently, ABC's hit show "Lost," Hawaii has never been known as a major production hub. But the state has hosted some high-profile films in recent years, including the fourth installment of "Indiana Jones" " and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End."

"It's important to emphasize that the Hawaii Film Office remains open for business," Skinner said.

-- Richard Verrier

Photo: Matthew Fox and Evangeline Lilly in an episode of "Lost." Credit: Mario Perez / ABC

People with access to pre-release audience surveys say "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" will likely sell about $90 million worth of tickets this weekend and could possibly exceed $100 million. That would give it the No. 2 opening weekend of the year behind "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen."

The first "Twilight" movie opened to $69.6 million on the same weekend last year. Interest in the series has only grown, however, driven in part by its DVD, the top seller so far this year. Audience surveys have shown that interest among adult women has grown, while teenage and tween girls remain as fanatical as ever. Vampires in general are hot. Witness the success of HBO's "True Blood" and the CW's "The Vampire Diaries."

Combined with receipts from the 25 countries where it is launching simultaneously, including several where the original performed extremely well, such as Brazil, France, Italy, Mexico and the United Kingdom, "New Moon" will certainly gross significantly more than $100 million worldwide.

Summit Entertainment spent just under $50 million, including Canadian tax credits, to produce the film. Even including marketing costs, "New Moon" is all but certain to be a financial success from theatrical receipts alone, even before revenue from DVD and other ancillary markets.

As with the first "Twilight" movie, early showings are expected to be particularly lucrative, given huge anticipation for the picture among young female fans of the book and first movie who probably can't stay up past their bedtime. Online ticket sellers Fandango and MovieTickets.com both report that "New Moon" is the No. 1 advance ticket seller of all time, a reflection not only of overall interest, but of the intense desire of many fans to see the picture on its opening weekend.

"New Moon" could easily break the $22.2-million record for midnight showings set this summer by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince." A total of 3,514 theaters, 87% of the 4,024 total playing it this weekend, have midnight screenings scheduled.

Midnight ticket sales will get a boost from Summit's decision to re-release the original "Twilight" in 2,057 theaters tonight, about half as many as will start showing "New Moon" on Friday. Many locations are expected to create a double-screening event in which fans will come to watch "Twilight" and stay for "New Moon," generating even more money for the franchise in the process (ticket sales for the two pictures will be tallied separately).

The total Friday gross will likely be huge, followed by a big drop on Saturday. The first "Twilight" saw ticket sales decline 41% the day after it launched. It also experienced a substantial 62% drop on its second weekend despite the fact that the Friday after Thanksgiving is a holiday. If the new movie follows the same path as the first, however, it's all but certain to gross more than $200 million in the U.S. and Canada and about the same amount from foreign countries.

Inspirational football story "The Blind Side," which Warner Bros. is distributing for financier Alcon Entertainment, appears likely to open to a solid $20 million based on interest from adult women.

Lionsgate is expanding "Precious" once again, this time to about 600 theaters, which would put the critical favorite in nearly every major market around the country, although it's not yet in many suburbs or small towns. The hard but uplifting film, which Lionsgate acquired at the Sundance Film Festival for $5.5 million, has already collected $9.6 million in its first 13 days. It will likely gross an additional $6 million to $9 million this weekend.

Sony Pictures will open the family-friendly animated picture "Planet 51," which it is distributing for Spanish production studio Ilion Animation. It will likely gross between $12 million and $15 million. The movie was originally set to be distributed by New Line Cinema before the Time Warner division was folded into Warner Bros.

Sony's successful disaster flick "2012" will likely take a big drop from its $65.2-million opening and gross between $20 million and $30 million this weekend. Disney's "A Christmas Carol," which dropped only 26% on its second weekend, should decline very modestly again and collect more than $15 million.

Update (3:45 PM): Early returns from foreign countries where "New Moon" opened yesterday are phenomenal, already totaling $10.9 million. According to Summit, opening day grosses in France were $4.4 million, almost four times as much as the debut of "Twilight." In Italy and Spain it had the third highest Wednesday opening ever, collecting $2.7 million and $2.2 million, respectively. Midnight screenings in Australia grossed $1.6 million, a new record for the country.

Update (Nov. 20., 10 AM): "New Moon" broke the midnight ticket sales record set by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince." Details here.

--Ben Fritz

Top photo: Stephanie Alex, 20, holds a large sign of two of her favorite "New Moon" actors as she waits for the premiere in Westwood. Credit: Barbara Davidson/Los Angeles Times.

Bottom photo: Quinton Aaron and Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side." Credit: Warner Bros.

According to the Associated Press, Malone said in an interview that the deal would require competitors to "look pretty hard on how they can protect themselves from the kind of market power that would represent."

Malone certainly knows a lot about market power. He built Tele-Communications Inc. into the nation's largest cable operator in the 1980s and used that leverage to become a major content provider as well. If you had a cable network and wanted to get distribution, you had to cut a deal with Malone. Regulators routinely had Tele-Communications in their sights, and even other media giants complained of strong-arm tactics from Malone and TCI. Sumner Redstone's Viacom even once sued TCI and Malone on anti-trust grounds.

While his footprint in American media has definitely shrunk, Malone is still a force. Liberty owns satellite broadcaster DirecTV, a stake in satellite radio operator Sirius XM, a big chunk of Barry Diller's IAC/InterActiveCorp, the Atlanta Braves and a piece of the Denver Nuggets. Malone himself has a stake in Discovery Communications and sits on its board.

Consumer advocates and media watchdogs are already making noises in Washington about a potential Comcast-NBC Universal combination. Malone told Reuters that DirecTV will have a "point of view" on the as yet unannounced deal. It is rare for a rival media mogul to speak out against a deal, particularly one who has such disdain for government involvement in business. We were unsuccessful in an effort to reach Malone to see if he is really worried about the deal or if his remarks were taken out of context.

While it is unlikely that other media companies will publicly criticize the deal, that doesn't mean they don't have other ways in which to make their presences felt. Often they form alliances behind the scenes in an effort to sway regulators without leaving fingerprints. One of the more amusing examples of this was when News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch lobbied the National Religious Broadcasters to make noise against a proposed merger of satellite broadcasters EchoStar and DirecTV in 2002. Murdoch wanted DirecTV for himself (and later got it, only to eventually sell it). The Wall Street Journal reported how Murdoch went to the annual NRB convention in Nashville to try to get them involved his fight and even joined a prayer circle while there.

Odds are that the shrewd Malone wants something out of Comcast or NBC and this is his way of making his presence felt. He's already in a little battle with Comcast over the cable giant's sports network Versus, which DirecTV has stopped carrying because of a feud over money. Don't be surprised if Malone's  objections fade after some backroom deal gets done. It's not exactly Chinatown, but this is how business is done in D.C.

-- Joe Flint

Overpaid? Me? How dare they! Don't look for Will Ferrell or Ewan McGregor to do any sit-down interviews with Forbes anytime soon. The magazine has put those two on the top of their Hollywood's 10 Most Overpaid Stars list. Also making the cut were Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy. Of course, whether one big bomb for Ferrell ("Land of the Lost") really merits that sort of stigma is open for debate. Regardless, this is one list that agents and publicists aren't fighting to get their talent on! 

Does this mean free Pepsi for signing up? Satellite broadcaster DirecTV Group Inc. finally hired a new chief executive to replace Chase Carey, who bolted earlier this year to go back to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. It's Michael White, a senior executive at PepsiCo whose main focus has been in the international markets. The move to go with someone whose experience is in retail highlights DirecTV's desire to beef up its marketing efforts. Analysis from the Wall Street Journal and Los Angeles Times. 

It's like "The Wrestler," just only about country music. "Crazy Heart," starring Jeff Bridges as a down-and-out country singer that looked like it might end up sitting on the shelf, is now getting Oscar buzz, according to the New York Times. The paper says some awards watchers are already calling Bridges a candidate for best actor. Notably, the people quoted in the article saying that seemed to be tied to the movie, which Fox Searchlight picked up after MTV Films sat on it. But I guess if they watch awards shows and the writer of the article watches awards shows too, that counts. 

Hope this doesn't mean Kanye West will get center stage. Hamish Hamilton, whose previous awards show credits include this year's MTV Awards and a Victoria's Secret Fashion Show or two, has been tapped to direct the Oscars. Details on the choice from Deadline Hollywood and Variety.

NFL to put time limit on tailgating. The National Football League wants to limit pre-game tailgating by fans (otherwise known as the how much beer can I drink before opening kickoff festival) to only 3 1/2 hours. Some fans are outraged, but families probably won't like not having to step over vomit or be heckled on their way into the stadium. If you're wondering why we're including this story from USA Today in a roundup of entertainment news it's because the NFL's marketing and image machine is something to behold.

Inside the Los Angeles Times: New TV sets have to meet energy-efficient standards starting in 2011. NBC's "Parks and Recreation" is turning into one of NBC's few bright spots. Kenneth Turan on whether "New Moon" has bite. 

-- Joe Flint

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White has no experience in the television or satellite industries. He worked at Pepsico for 18 years, rising from vice president of planning for subsidiary Frito-Lay North America to his most recent post. Prior to that he worked for cosmetics company Avon Products Inc. and consultancies Bain & Co. and Anderson & Co.

White, who starts his job Jan. 1, will report to DirecTV chairman John Malone, whose Liberty Media took a controlling stake in the satellite broadcaster as part of a deal with News Corp. completed last year.

-- Ben Fritz

Starting with today's announcement, EMI will make content available from its various music labels, including Virgin, Capitol and Blue Note. It launches with exclusive footage of Norah Jones performing music from her new album, "The Fall," in a concert at Le Poisson Rouge in New York City.

Music videos already have shown strong appeal for rival online video site YouTube, which is working with Universal Music Group to develop a service called Vevo, which would highlight such content on YouTube and elsewhere online.

"We think Hulu is an excellent, high-quality environment and a great place to connect with fans," Ronn Werre,  chief operating officer of EMI Music North America, said in a statement.

Hulu has attracted millions of online viewers with the lure of Hollywood-produced television shows and films, which are available for free. Over the summer, it began experimenting with music, striking a concert deal with the Dave Matthews Band.

-- Dawn C. Chmielewski

Photo: The cover of Norah Jones' latest release, "The Fall." Credit: EMI Blue Note / Associated Press

Heather Locklear's heavily hyped return to The CW's remake of "Melrose Place" did provide a bump in the ratings -- but it was nowhere near as big a bump as the flailing series needs.

Tuesday's episode drew 1.54 million total viewers, according to overnight estimates -- and indeed, as small as that tally is, it's up 20% from the week prior and the show's best delivery since Oct. 6. "Melrose" also saw upticks in women 18-34 (1.6/4) and women 18-49 (1.1/3).

By way of comparison, lead-in "90210" delivered 2.1 million total viewers and far better demos in women 18-34 (2.3/6) and women 18-49 (1.5/4).

-- Denise Martin

Photo credit: The CW

There's a danger, however, in comparing apples to kumquats.

Today Activision Blizzard Inc. revealed that its hugely anticipated video game, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, generated $550 million in worldwide sales during its first five days. As the publisher trumpeted in a press release, that's substantially higher than the biggest five-day worldwide box office launch, a record held by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince." That's correct.

But that doesn't mean Modern Warfare 2 has been enjoyed by as many people or that it will be as profitable. The video game costs $60 to buy, after all ($150 for the "prestige edition," which includes an art book and night vision goggles), whereas movie tickets cost less than $10 on average (shocking as that may be to Los Angeles residents). More important, movies make the majority of their revenue when they're done playing in theaters, from DVD, pay television and other markets. Video games make virtually all of their money from retail sales. With the exception of the relatively tiny market for add-on digital content, they're done once they leave stores.

We're not saying the launch of Modern Warfare 2 isn't impressive. As a story in today's Times explains, it's a new record, a much-needed shot in the arm for the industry, and a reflection of careful planning and a massive $200-million investment by Activision Blizzard.

Just don't believe the hype that video games are now bigger than movies. Hollywood can rest easy. For now, anyway.

-- Ben Fritz

Photo: A scene from Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. Credit: Activision Blizzard Inc.

Analyzing Comcast. Wall Street Journal columnist Holman Jenkins weighs in on Comcast's plans to take over NBC Universal. Though he's quick to buy the spin on why Leno at 10 p.m. makes sense (uh, so far programming for margins isn't exactly improving margins), there are other astute observations about the future of content and the bets the cable giant is making to try to stay in the game. Bottom line for Comcast investors? Buyer beware.

Call of Duty answers call. The video game Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II has posted a record-setting $550 million in sales. The game cost about $40 million to $50 million to produce. The Los Angeles Times looks at the economics of the game in comparison to the movie biz.

Bonds but not James. Investor and shareholder activist Carl Icahn has been gobbling up MGM bonds, according to the industry website Deadline. Is it part of a play to take over the studio? Does he want his son, Brett, to run it? Can MGM be saved? Is it worth saving? Do you now feel like you're about to be told to tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel, for the answers?

CBS teams with Sony. CBS' film division, which is gearing up for its first release, has struck a deal to have Sony Pictures distribute its movies abroad. The deal, which kicks off with the January release of "Extraordinary Measures" with Harrison Ford runs for three years, according to Variety. CBS started the studio after it split from Viacom and it needs some movies for its Showtime pay cable channel.

King of TV. Movie producer Graham King' GK Films has launched a TV arm and has tapped Lionsgate TV's Craig Cegielski to oversee it, per the Hollywood Reporter. GK-TV said it will produce and distribute its product without teaming up with a big studio.

Super sellout near. Advertising Age reports that CBS only has six to 12 -- out of 62 -- Super Bowl commercials left to unload. Ratings for the NFL are very strong this year. Besides the usual suspects -- Budweiser, Pepsi -- other advertisers thinking of buying include General Motors and FedEx.

ESPN renews Gruden. Although John Gruden's first year in the booth won't make anyone remember John Madden, ESPN has extended former head coach Gruden's deal to be one of its "Monday Night Football" analysts. The New York Times sports business reporter Rich Sandomir notes that Gruden needs to step up his game and be more critical if he wants to make a mark. In other words, stop saying that Eric Mangini is a "heck of a coach."

Inside the Los Angeles Times: Inside Disney's decision to beach "Captain Nemo." Composers and lyricists are looking to unionize by partnering with the teamsters. 

-- Joe Flint

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"I thought it was interesting, but at that stage, Comcast was way, way too far down there," Murdoch said, adding, "I was late into the scene."

We have only a transcript, so it's hard to tell whether Murdoch was being witty or talking about the differences in valuations between broadcast and cable when he added that if he had done a deal, "I would have to sell off NBC, which would have been difficult, and MSNBC, which would not have been difficult."  We'd like to think that Murdoch was taking a shot at the liberal-leaning MSNBC, especially since there are no regulations on the books that would stop him from owning two cable news channels. 

Murdoch said he did not anticipate any major regulatory hurdles for NBC-Comcast, echoing a sentiment expressed yesterday by former News Corp. President Peter Chernin. Murdoch did say he expected some conditions to be put on a deal similar to those that were put on News Corp. when it acquired DirecTV. In that case, the concession was that it treat everybody equally when it came to selling its content. Requiring a company to treat everyone equally? Yeah, that sounds pretty extreme.

-- Joe Flint

Photo: News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch with Fox Business Network's Alexis Glick